Before the seminar, there will be 4 short talks. They will last 10 min each followed by a short discussion.

Before the seminar, there will be two sessions, with 4 lightning talks in each room. Talks will last 10 min followed by a short discussion.

This is our fifth event in the T3M series (program here).

It is co-hosted by Ecole Polytechnique (regular seminar series here).

Meeting Point: gt.t2m.network on May 10th at 13:30pm__

Schedule (Paris Time)

Franck Portier (Toulouse School of Economics) will present his paper: Monetary Policy when the Phillips Curve is Locally Quite Flat, joint with Paul Beaudry and Chenyu Hou.

This paper begins by highlighting how the presence of a cost channel of monetary policy can offer new insights into the behavior of inflation when the Phillips curve is locally quite flat. For instance, we highlight a key condition whereby lax monetary policy can push the economy in a low inflation trap and we discuss how, under the same condition, standard policy rules for targeting inflation may need to be modified. In the second part of the paper we explore the empirical relevance of the conditions that give rise to these observations using US data. To this end, we present both (i) a wide set of estimates derived from single-equation estimation of the Phillips curve and (ii) estimates based on structural estimation of a full model. The results from both sets of empirical exercises strongly support the key condition we derived.

Note that we will use the Banque de France conferencing system. It is mandatory to register at least one day before on the seminar’s website. You will then receive connection credentials by emails.

Immediately after the seminar, there will be 5 lightning talks, lasting 10min each. They will take place in the same conference room.

As usual, those interested can meet for a small coffee before on Gather Town. You can also join the webconference directly. In any case do not forget to register…

Pablo Otonello (University of Michigan) will present his paper: The Micro-Anatomy of Macro-Consumption Adjustments, joint with Rafael Guntin and Diego J. Perez.

The Lightning Talks will feature:

• Anna Rogantini Picco (Sveriges Riksbank): Five Facts about the Distributional Income Effects of Monetary Policy with Niklas Amberg, Thomas Jansson and Mathias Klein.
• Cristiano Cantore (Bank of England): A tail of labor supply and a tale of monetary policy with Filippo Ferroni, Haroon Mumtaz and Angeliki Theophilopoulou.
• Nicolo Maffei: (Bocconi University) Nonlinear Financial Shocks with Mario Forni, Luca Gambetti and Luca Sala
• Bruno Pellegrino (University of Maryland): Barriers to Global Capital Allocation with Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg
• Eugenia Andreassen (Universidad De Chile): Beware the Side Effects: Capital Controls Cause Resource Misallocation and Large Welfare Costs, with S. Bauducco, E Dardati and E. Mendoza

This is our fourth event in the T3M series (program here).

It is co-hosted by Université du Québec à Montreal (UQAM) (regular seminar series here).

Meeting Point: gt.t2m.network on April 30th at 3pm

Schedule (Paris Time)

Before the seminar, we will organize a poster session with young economists presenting their research:

• Jean-Paul Tsasa (UQAM), Medium-Term Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search, with Pavel Ševčík
• Marco Pinchetti (Bank of England) and Andrzej Szczepaniak (Ghent University), Global Spillovers of the Fed Information Effect
• Ibrahima Diarra (Université Paris-Saclay) Sovereign Defaults, Debt Sustainability and Haircuts, with Michel Guillard and Hubert Kempf
• Aymeric Ortmans (Université Paris-Saclay), Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
• Juho Peltonen (Université Paris-Saclay & University of Helsinki), Discount factor shocks and labor market outcomes in the Great Recession
• Malak Kandoussi (Université Paris-Saclay), The Lockdown Impact on Unemployment for Heterogeneous Workers, with François Langot

Then, Enghin Atalay (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) will present his paper: Firm Technology Upgrading Through Emerging Work, yoint with Sarada.

We propose a new measure of firms’ technology adoption, based on the types of employees they seek. We construct firm-year level measures of emerging and disappearing work using newspaper job ads posted between 1940 and 2000. Firms that post ads for emerging work tend to be younger, more R&D intensive, have faster growth, and are more likely to survive. We develop a model – consistent with these patterns – with incumbent job vintage upgrading and firm entry and exit. Our estimated model indicates that 55 percent of upgrading occurs through the entry margin, with incumbents accounting for the remaining 45 percent.

This is our third event in the T3M series (preliminary program here).

It is co-hosted by CEPII.

Meeting Point: gt.t2m.network on April 8th at 2:00pm

Schedule (Paris Time)

Giancarlo Corsetti will present his paper: Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic Joint with Martin Bodenstein and Luca Guerrieri

Authors integrate an epidemiological model, augmented with contact and mobility analyses, with a two-sector macroeconomic model, to assess the economic costs of labour supply disruptions in a pandemic. The model is designed to capture key characteristics of the U.S. Input-Output Tables and a core sector that produces intermediate inputs not easily replaceable by the other sector, subject to minimum-scale requirements. Using epidemiological and mobility data to inform our exercises, authors show that the reduction in labour services due to the observed social distancing (spontaneous and mandatory) can explain up to 6-8% of the roughly 12% U.S. GDP contraction in the second quarter of 2020. Public measures designed to protect workers in core industries and occupations with tasks that cannot be performed from home, can flatten the epidemiological curve at reduced economic costs—and contain vulnerabilities to supply disruptions vis-a-vis a new surge of infections. Using state-level data for the United States, the research provides econometric evidence that spontaneous social distancing was no less costly than mandated social distancing.

This is our second event in the T3M series (preliminary program here).

It is co-hosted by OFCE (regular seminar series here ).

Meeting Point: gt.t2m.network on March 29th at 1:30pm

Schedule (Paris Time)

Giovanni Ricco will present his paper: The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Joint with Riccardo Degasperi and Seokki Simon Hong

We quantify global US monetary policy spillovers by employing a high-frequency identification and big data techniques, in conjunction with a large harmonised dataset covering 30 economies. We report three novel stylised facts. First, a US monetary policy tightening has large contractionary effects onto both advanced and emerging economies. Second, flexible exchange rates cannot fully insulate domestic economies, due to movements in risk premia that limit central banks’ ability to control the yield curve. Third, financial channels dominate over demand and exchange rate channels in the transmission to real variables, while the transmission via oil and commodity prices determines nominal spillovers.

This is our first event in the T3M series (preliminary program here).

It is co-hosted by Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE) (regular seminar series here ).

Main Goal is to familiarize participants with Gather Town for social interaction.We will use it for all future events (poster sessions, parallel mini-sessions, …)

Meeting Point: gt.t2m.network on March 15th at 11am

Schedule (Paris Time)

Evi Pappa will present her paper: What are the likely macroeconomic effects of the EU Recovery plan? Joint with Fabio Canova

We examine the dynamic macroeconomic effects of the two largest EU regional structural funds. On average, ERDF funds have significant positive short term consequences on regional macroeconomic variables but gains dissipate almost entirely within three years. ESF funds have negative impact effects on regional variables, but their average cumulative medium term mul- tipliers are positive and economically significant. We detect important regional asymmetries which may induce differential transition paths and outlooks for economic transformation. Lo- cation, level of development, EU tenure, Euro area membership and national borderes account for part of the asymmetries. We present a two-region equilibrium model with sticky prices and endogenous growth through investment in R&D and human capital that reproduces the facts and explains some of the observed asymmetries. The policy implications for the newly created Recovery fund are discussed.

As Fabien Tripier announced before the summer, I will be taking over the T2M organization for the next four years. I fully intend to follow in his footsteps when it comes to promoting ambitious research and fruitful interactions.

To start with, I am happy to announce the creation of a formal non-profit association “Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics”, whose goal is to keep the network well alive, by finding creative ways of ensuring broad participation to our events, especially when it comes to welcoming young macroeconomists to our profession. I’d like to take the occasion to thank Thomas Brand, Axelle Ferrière, Céline Poilly, and Fabien Tripier who have all stepped in as founding members of the T2M association and are the current members of the board. The scientific committee remains unchanged and will keep its role of providing scientific validation and selecting the papers presented at our yearly conference.

Speaking of the conference, we have decided to delay the 2021 conference to the Autumn, obviously due to Covid uncertainty. The good news is, it will take place in London on November 4th-5th, 2021. It will be hosted by King’s College. Local committee will consist of Rana Sajedi (Bank of England), Antonio Mele (LSE/Centre for Macroeconomics) and Francesca Monti (King’s College). You can already save the date in your agenda! We plan to wait until late Spring before issuing the Call for Papers, so that, when we do, we’ll know for certain the conference can take place, in all its British glory.

The decision to postpone the conference until it can be held physically was motivated by the fact that most people are left unhappy with real conferences gone virtual. However, this should not prevent us from organizing other kinds of events that would be better suited to online participation. In particular, there is no reason to give up on the fun part of conferences, where we get to socialize and to argue against each other in informal discussions.

So, the T2M committee has decided to devote itself to running experiments to find out which kind of research interactions work well online, and what kind of technology is adequate or will soon be. In the Spring, we plan to organize smaller scale research events using online socializing tools. For instance, we would like to experiment with online poster sessions, test synchronous or asynchronous ways to present papers using videos, try out virtual reality headsets, these kinds of things. All of that will be open to all those who are interested, and, let’s admit it, ready to face the teething problems. Overall, we believe it is the perfect time to experiment and some of these new ways to interact might make a way into our future, low carbon-emission, post-Covid world.

This series of events, codenamed T3M for now, should span broadly from the beginning of March until the end of June, and take place roughly twice a month. We’ll get back to you very soon with a more detailed agenda and practical details.

In the meantime, I wish you all the very best,

Pablo Winant

Associate Professor of Economics, ESCP Business School

Affiliate Professor and Researcher, CREST / Ecole Polytechnique